When Will The Stock Market Crash?

Cash is a dreadful investment. Especially right now. Low interest rates and inflation mean cash goes backwards as an investment. And yet I find myself with too much cash. What I need is a stock market crash - an opportunity to put my excess funds to work.

But Don't I Like It When The Market Goes Up?

Like everybody else, I feel good when the value of my portfolio increases.   It's human nature. But the reality is that while I’m still putting money into the stock market, I should prefer lower prices. It means I get more for each dollar invested. Of course, the opposite is also true. When I start to draw down on my investments, a sudden drop in prices could be more than a little unnerving.

Am I Predicting A Stock Market Crash? 

Is Value Investing Back From The Dead?

It seems value investing has staged a remarkable turnaround in recent times. It’s kind of like what happened to John Travolta’s career after he did Pulp Fiction.

I originally started thinking about this when I came across the performance figures for the Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF (ASX Code VVLU).

55 percent! The year-to-date and 1-year figures are very impressive (although the 3-year figures leave a little to be desired). The benchmark, in this case, is the FTSE Developed All-Cap in Australian dollars Index - that's a bunch of companies mostly listed on stock exchanges that aren't in Australia.

As I was perusing these figures, I wondered whether value investing’s long-awaited day in the sun had finally arrived after having been maligned by stock market investors the world over for what seemed like an eternity.

Wagners IPO Set In Concrete?

I read in the Australian Financial Review earlier in the week that Wagners Group is looking to list on the Australian Stock Exchange. While there is not much information available yet, the rumor is the deal is worth around $500 million.

About the business:

From the website...

"Wagners is one of Queensland's largest privately-owned construction materials and mining services companies"

What captured my attention about this float is that it is a long established business which has been in operation for 28 years. Also, the family who founded the business is planning on maintaining a significant stake in the company. In my experience, this is normally good news for an IPO. However, as always, the devil will be in the detail. The asking price will be a big determinant as to whether an investment will be warranted.

There is no time frame for the Wagners float yet.

MYOB Shares To Float Again

MYOB lodged its IPO Prospectus with ASIC today. The Accounting Software company is seeking to raise over $800 million in the share offer and at the planned offer price of $3 - $4, would have a market capitalization of around $2.5 billion.

According to the company's announcement to the ASX today, the proceeds will go to paying down debt and meeting the costs of the initial public offering. The current owners - Bain Capital - will hold onto their stake in the company and will hold 57% of MYOB shares after a successful listing.

MYOB was originally listed on the ASX back in 2000 before being taken private by private equity firm Archer Capital back in 2009. Since then the business has been sold onto Bain Capital who are now looking to float the shares once again.

The MYOB share offer will be open to both retail and institutional investors.
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Which Australian Bank Pays The Best Dividends?

Australian Banks have long been popular investments among Aussie investors. One of the reasons has been the fact they have been among the best paying dividend shares.

Below is a table of the 6 largest banks listed on the ASX. They are ordered according to which bank pays the best dividends. All of the distributions paid by  shares listed in the table below are fully franked.

ASX Code	Company Name	Current Price	Dividend Yield	Annual Growth Rate	Payout Ratio
NAB	National Australia Bank	$33.49	5.9%	6.8%	80%
BEN	Bendigo and Adelaide Bank	$11.73	5.3%	9.5%	76%
ANZ	ANZ Banking Group	$33.49	5.2%	12.6%	70%
BOQ	Bank of Queensland	$12.00	5.2%	3.6%	90%
WBC	Westpac	$34.42	5.2%	13.7%	78%
CBA	Commanwealth Bank	$81.59	4.7%	12.4%	75%

As you can see the National Australia Bank is a clear leader in terms of yield, but there are a number of other factors to consider.

What Are Exchange Traded Funds And How Do They Work?

In his 2013 annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett put forward some ideas on ETFs. He discussed how in his will he's left instructions for 90% of the money which is to be held in trust for his wife to be invested in (low cost) ETFs. If one of the most successful investors in history is recommending exchange traded funds, maybe the rest of us should have a closer look as well.

What Is An ETF?

It's a product which provides investors with relatively low cost exposure to a broad range of companies or other invest-able assets. They are traded on the stock market just like the shares of listed companies.

An ETF tracks an index like the ASX300 or the price of a commodity like gold.  This means that investors should receive the same return as they would if the held all of the shares which make up the index, or in the cast of something like gold, it would be similar to buying gold.

Cheap Shares - 3 Companies Worthy Of Further Research

I am drawn to cheap shares as a result of my having both feet planted firmly in the value investing camp. Of course cheap can be a somewhat subjective term with different meanings for different investors.  However, a good starting place for me is normally to begin with stocks trading at or close to their lowest price over the past 12 months.

Here is a list if 3 companies whose shares are trading close to their lowest price over the past year and in which I intend to conduct further research.