Australian Stock Market Weakness A Buying Opportunity?

The Australian Stock Market is approaching a three month low this week. After a brief rally it's all doom and gloom once more - just in time for the end of the financial year. So does this mean it's a good time to buy Australian shares?

I guess it depends on your time frame and your outlook. If you're a long-term investor or a fan of value investing, then these sorts of conditions are right up your alley. But if you're a speculator looking to make a quick buck, it might be a little risky.

I suspect that one of the reasons for the recent share price weakness, apart from the obvious ongoing turmoil in the debt markets, is the fast approaching end of the financial (tax) year. At this time of year some investor like to look back on the profits they've taken during the year then look at their portfolio to find any losses they might be sitting on. By selling out of any losing positions, they can crystallize their loss for tax purposes and offset this loss against other gains.

If you're thinking of engaging in the above strategy you'll need to be careful. There are situations where the Australian Taxation Office take a dim view of this sort of activity. I think the problem arises when you sell the buy back in straight away and the only purpose of the transaction is to generate a tax loss. Make sure you talk to a tax professional if you're considering doing this.

Apparently one of the other reasons for volatility at this time of year is because the fund managers are re-balancing or 'window dressing' their portfolios. I dare say the the Superannuation Funds are very busy right now trying to salvage some sort respectable result.

Another way of looking at the current state of the markets is as a second chance. For those of us who hadn't bought everything we wanted to before the recent recovery, it means we get another bite at the cherry. I certainly thought that prices were recovering and that I'd missed the low point. Now we all get a second chance to top up our portfolios with good quality Australian stocks.

Australian Stock Market Investing

Investing vs Speculating on the Australian Stock Market.

What is the difference between investment and speculation? Unfortunately many people tend to confuse the terms and even use the two interchangeably. In this post I'd like to put forward my views on what the difference is and how it applies to the Australian Stock Market.

In his book, Security Analysis, Benjamin Graham discusses the difference between investing and speculating at length. Graham describes the difference between the two succinctly using the following words:

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."

I think this sums it up nicely. If you approach each stock market investment with Graham's words in mind, you cannot help but do well over the long term.

The concern I have with speculation is that there is not normally any fundamental basis for entering a particular investment. A stock is bought because there is an expectation that the price will rise (normally over the short term) and it can then be sold at a profit. The problem lies in the fact that the expectation of a rise in price is based on observations of whether the price is rising or falling, or on what the price has done in the past. It seems to be solely about identifying patterns in price and volume.

The issue I have with this approach is that price does not necessarily reflect the value in the company. Over the course of weeks or even days a company's share price can fluctuate wildly without any news from the company in question. Is it possible that the fundamentals of the company have changed so dramatically over such a short period of time? In most cases it's unlikely. Sure - there are cases where a major change in the company's fortunes becomes known to the stock market leading to a change in valuation of the company's shares. But in most cases it's just investor sentiment driving prices.

So the next time you consider the purchase of a company's shares you should bear Graham's words in mind. Do you understand the company well enough to be confident of it's fortunes into the future? Is there sufficient value present to justify the price being asked? If you can't answer yes to both of these questions, should you really be investing? Remember that you can afford to pick and choose. The Australian stock market continues the throw up opportunities for patient investors.